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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 52

New England Patriots 3 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-24-D.Pettus.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.82 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 52, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model