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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Brian Schottenheimer
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New York Jets

HC Aaron Glenn
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

DAL
46.5%
NYJ
53.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.177 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 24
–
NYJ 25
Projected margin: NYJ by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

DAL

Malik Hooker S Out Toe
CeeDee Lamb WR Out Ankle
KaVontae Turpin WR Out Foot
Tyler Guyton T Out Concussion
Tyler Booker G Out Ankle
Miles Sanders RB Questionable Knee
Kenneth Murray, Jr. LB Questionable Knee
Tyler Smith G Questionable Knee
Jonathan Mingo WR Questionable Knee
Caelen Carson CB Questionable Knee
Marshawn Kneeland DE Questionable Ankle

NYJ

Michael Carter II CB Out Concussion
Kene Nwangwu RB Out Hamstring
Jermaine Johnson II DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 37
–
NYJ 22

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:46 FG NYJ (7:46) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. DAL 0 – NYJ 3
  • Q1 05:00 FG DAL (5:00) 17-B.Aubrey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 11:48 TD DAL (11:48) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 01:02 TD DAL (1:02) 33-J.Williams right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 00:19 TD DAL (:19) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-71-N.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DAL 23 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 04:40 TD DAL (4:40) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 29 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 01:01 FG NYJ (1:01) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. DAL 30 – NYJ 6
  • Q4 07:59 TD NYJ (7:59) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 7-J.Fields pass short right to 47-A.Beck for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [41-D.Ezeiruaku]. DAL 30 – NYJ 12
  • Q4 04:34 TD DAL (4:34) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 36 – NYJ 14
  • Q4 01:49 TD NYJ (1:49) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 5-G.Wilson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [41-D.Ezeiruaku]. DAL 37 – NYJ 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (7:46) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%

    (5:00) 17-B.Aubrey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 52%

    (2:58) 14-A.McNamara punts 33 yards to DAL 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-J.Moreno-Cropper.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:16) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to NYJ 16, Center-44-T.Sieg. 39-A.Williams to NYJ 33 for 17 yards (44-T.Sieg).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:36) 14-A.McNamara punts 43 yards to DAL 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-J.Moreno-Cropper.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:33) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to NYJ 15, Center-44-T.Sieg. 39-A.Williams to NYJ 24 for 9 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:00) 14-A.McNamara punts 42 yards to DAL 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-J.Moreno-Cropper. PENALTY on DAL-83-J.Brooks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 24.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:58) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to NYJ 33, Center-44-T.Sieg. 39-A.Williams to NYJ 33 for no gain (83-J.Brooks).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 42%

    (5:21) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 47-A.Beck (59-K.Murray) [35-M.Liufau].

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 81%

    (1:01) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:56) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to NYJ 16, Center-44-T.Sieg. 39-A.Williams pushed ob at NYJ 31 for 15 yards (2-J.Thomas). DAL-83-J.Brooks was injured during the play.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 49%

    (13:47) (No Huddle) 7-J.Fields up the middle to DAL 44 for no gain (41-D.Ezeiruaku). Penalty on NYJ-70-A.Membou, Offensive Offside, declined. PENALTY on DAL-7-T.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:17) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to NYJ 22, Center-44-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 94%

    (8:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short middle to 20-B.Hall to DAL 1 for 16 yards (2-J.Thomas; 59-K.Murray).