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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 47

New York Jets 3 – Dallas Cowboys 23

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 47-A.Beck (59-K.Murray) [35-M.Liufau].

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.98 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model