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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 16

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 17-B.Aubrey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP