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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to NYJ 16, Center-44-T.Sieg. 39-A.Williams to NYJ 33 for 17 yards (44-T.Sieg).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.67 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 28, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model