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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 17

New York Jets 6 – Dallas Cowboys 30

What Actually Happened

(8:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short middle to 20-B.Hall to DAL 1 for 16 yards (2-J.Thomas; 59-K.Murray).

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.02 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 17, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model