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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 23 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to NYJ 15, Center-44-T.Sieg. 39-A.Williams to NYJ 24 for 9 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.65 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 57, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP