4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 7

New York Jets 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 7, worth +0.52 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP