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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 44

New York Jets 6 – Dallas Cowboys 30

What Actually Happened

(13:47) (No Huddle) 7-J.Fields up the middle to DAL 44 for no gain (41-D.Ezeiruaku). Penalty on NYJ-70-A.Membou, Offensive Offside, declined. PENALTY on DAL-7-T.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.00 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model