MIN @ CLE — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell

Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski

Sunday 2025-10-05 · 09:30 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 35.5

Win Probability

MIN

68.1%

CLE

31.9%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CLE offense: -0.291 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
Neutral site — no home-field edge
MIN offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
QB edge to MIN: Dillon Gabriel (CLE) -0.228 vs Carson Wentz (MIN) -0.065 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Dillon Gabriel in place of Joe Flacco)
CLE defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
MIN defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22

–

CLE 16

Projected margin: MIN by 6 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

MIN

Ryan Kelly C Out Concussion

Brian O'Neill T Out Knee

Andrew Van Ginkel LB Out Neck

Michael Jurgens C Out Hamstring

J.J. McCarthy QB Out Ankle

Donovan Jackson G Out Wrist

C.J. Ham FB Questionable Knee

Tyler Batty LB Questionable Knee

Ben Yurosek TE Questionable Knee

CLE

Mike Hall Jr. DT Out Knee

Jack Conklin T Questionable Elbow

Greg Newsome II CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 21

–

CLE 17

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:54 TD CLE (6:54) 8-D.Gabriel pass short left to 44-H.Fannin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – CLE 6
Q1 02:37 TD MIN (2:37) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 31-C.Akers. 31-C.Akers pass short right to 84-J.Oliver for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – CLE 7
Q2 00:13 FG CLE (:13) 25-A.Szmyt 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. MIN 7 – CLE 10
Q3 11:15 TD MIN (11:15) (Shotgun) 27-J.Mason up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – CLE 10
Q3 03:09 TD CLE (3:09) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 14 – CLE 16
Q4 00:30 TD MIN (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – CLE 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 53

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 20%

(13:08) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to MIN 8, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 4-M.Price.
Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 6

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 60% p(FG) 98%

(8:15) 98-A.Huntington and 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to MIN 4 for 2 yards (55-E.Wilson; 26-T.Jackson).
Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(14:37) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to MIN 21, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 50

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP

p(convert) 51% p(FG) 25%

(11:04) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to CLE 11, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 81

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP

p(convert) 58%

(8:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to MIN 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 4-M.Price to MIN 32 for 8 yards (50-R.Sunahara; 42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold). PENALTY on MIN-13-T.Felton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 24.
Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 77

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP

p(convert) 72%

(6:26) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to CLE 23, Center-42-A.DePaola. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 26 for 3 yards (56-A.Keys).
Q2 CLE 4th & 13 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(4:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to MIN 11, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 81

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP

p(convert) 62%

(2:41) 17-R.Wright punts 63 yards to CLE 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 84-G.Larvadain ran ob at CLE 34 for 16 yards (30-C.Ham; 98-B.Richter).
Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 57

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66%

(1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-J.Ford up the middle to CLE 45 for 2 yards (15-D.Turner; 97-J.Hargrave).
Q2 CLE 4th & 13 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 21% p(FG) 96%

(:13) 25-A.Szmyt 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 11

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 60% p(FG) 96%

(4:37) 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to MIN 9 for 2 yards (7-B.Murphy).
Q3 MIN 4th & 15 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(1:10) 17-R.Wright punts 77 yards to CLE 2, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-37-T.Thomas. PENALTY on CLE-28-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at CLE 2.
Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 90

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP

p(convert) 70%

(14:17) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to MIN 46, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 4-M.Price to CLE 42 for 12 yards (50-R.Sunahara; 28-T.Avery).
Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(12:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to MIN 25, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 70%

(9:46) 16-W.Reichard 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 42

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 46%

(7:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 60 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(3:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to MIN 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 4-M.Price to MIN 20 for 3 yards (31-D.McMillon; 28-T.Avery).