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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 17 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to MIN 25, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.08 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model