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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to CLE 23, Center-42-A.DePaola. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 26 for 3 yards (56-A.Keys).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.91 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP