4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to MIN 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 4-M.Price to MIN 32 for 8 yards (50-R.Sunahara; 42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold). PENALTY on MIN-13-T.Felton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.14 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 38, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP