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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 11

Cleveland Browns 10 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to MIN 9 for 2 yards (7-B.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO +3.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.40 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model