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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 53

Cleveland Browns 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to MIN 8, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.29 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP