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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 13

Cleveland Browns 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(:13) 25-A.Szmyt 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.78 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 13, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model