4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 57

Cleveland Browns 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-J.Ford up the middle to CLE 45 for 2 yards (15-D.Turner; 97-J.Hargrave).

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.36 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model