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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 42

Cleveland Browns 17 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.54 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model