Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BAL offense: +0.176 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- HOU offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- QB edge to HOU: Cooper Rush (BAL) -0.096 vs C.J. Stroud (HOU) -0.045 EPA/dropback (BAL starting Cooper Rush in place of Lamar Jackson)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
HOU
BAL
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 39 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:29 TD HOU (9:29) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – BAL 0
- Q1 02:01 FG BAL (2:01) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. HOU 7 – BAL 3
- Q2 11:23 FG HOU (11:23) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 10 – BAL 3
- Q2 05:40 TD HOU (5:40) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – BAL 3
- Q2 00:31 TD HOU (:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 23 – BAL 3
- Q3 11:40 TD HOU (11:40) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 21-N.Chubb right guard for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 30 – BAL 3
- Q3 05:59 FG HOU (5:59) 15-K.Fairbairn 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 34 – BAL 3
- Q3 02:48 TD BAL (2:48) 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 34 – BAL 9
- Q4 13:53 TD HOU (13:53) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 14-J.Noel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 40 – BAL 10
- Q4 10:34 FG HOU (10:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 44 – BAL 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%
(2:01) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 13 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 78%
(11:23) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(4:11) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-40-T.Buchanan.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 7 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(9:35) 11-J.Stout punts 60 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-J.Noel to HOU 29 for 12 yards (49-J.Higgins; 81-D.Walker).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 39Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 63%
(5:59) 15-K.Fairbairn 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(:33) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 44-B.Brooks up the middle to 50 for 6 yards (40-T.Buchanan).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%
(10:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(9:06) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(7:38) 6-T.Townsend punts 59 yards to BAL 17, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-L.Wester to BAL 33 for 16 yards (35-J.Hansen).