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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 16

Houston Texans 41 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.01 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 16, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model