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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 56

Houston Texans 34 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(:33) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 44-B.Brooks up the middle to 50 for 6 yards (40-T.Buchanan).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model