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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 76

Houston Texans 44 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 6-T.Townsend punts 59 yards to BAL 17, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-L.Wester to BAL 33 for 16 yards (35-J.Hansen).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.54 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model