Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Houston Texans 31

(9:35) 11-J.Stout punts 60 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-J.Noel to HOU 29 for 12 yards (49-J.Higgins; 81-D.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model