Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Houston Texans 44

(9:06) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model