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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

WAS
41.1%
LAC
58.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

WAS 23
–
LAC 26
Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

WAS

Noah Brown WR Out Groin
Terry McLaurin WR Out Quadricep
Sam Cosmi G Out Knee

LAC

Derius Davis WR Out Knee
Joe Alt T Out Ankle
Will Dissly TE Questionable Knee
Mekhi Becton G Questionable Concussion
Tucker Fisk TE Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 27
–
LAC 10

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:53 TD LAC (9:53) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-L.McConkey for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – LAC 6
  • Q1 03:02 FG LAC (3:02) 11-C.Dicker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. WAS 0 – LAC 10
  • Q2 04:21 TD WAS (4:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – LAC 10
  • Q2 00:05 FG WAS (:05) 16-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 10 – LAC 10
  • Q3 11:02 TD WAS (11:02) (Shotgun) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – LAC 10
  • Q3 05:52 FG WAS (5:52) 16-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Penalty on LAC-53-D.Phillips, Defensive Offside, declined. WAS 20 – LAC 10
  • Q4 01:14 TD WAS (1:14) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-D.Samuel for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 26 – LAC 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 30%

    (8:29) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 11 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 69%

    (3:02) 11-C.Dicker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:04) 10-T.Way punts 48 yards to LAC 14, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 14 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:45) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to WAS 7, Center-41-R.Lovato, downed by LAC-24-B.St-Juste.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (5:52) 16-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Penalty on LAC-53-D.Phillips, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 64%

    (1:55) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Conklin.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (1:14) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-D.Samuel for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.49 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 71%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short right to 83-T.Conklin to WAS 15 for 21 yards (35-P.Butler).