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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to WAS 7, Center-41-R.Lovato, downed by LAC-24-B.St-Juste.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.77 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model