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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 18

Washington Commanders 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 16-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Penalty on LAC-53-D.Phillips, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model