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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 8

Washington Commanders 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-D.Samuel for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.44 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP