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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 62

Washington Commanders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(:04) 10-T.Way punts 48 yards to LAC 14, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.67 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model