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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 37

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 11-C.Dicker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.47 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.19 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -3.16 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model