Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- JAX offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
KC
JAX
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 04:07 TD KC (4:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – JAX 0
- Q2 10:49 TD KC (10:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – JAX 0
- Q2 02:43 TD JAX (2:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – JAX 6
- Q3 08:47 TD JAX (8:47) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – JAX 13
- Q3 02:36 TD JAX (2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 1. 0-D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – JAX 20
- Q4 12:25 TD KC (12:25) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – JAX 21
- Q4 08:13 FG JAX (8:13) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. KC 21 – JAX 24
- Q4 01:48 TD KC (1:48) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – JAX 24
- Q4 00:30 TD JAX (:30) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-27-C.Conner, Defensive Holding, declined. KC 28 – JAX 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 63%
(13:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to KC 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-N.Remigio to KC 9 for no gain (25-R.Lane).
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Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 46Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 59% p(FG) 36%
(9:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 32 yards to JAX 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 65%
(8:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to KC 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-N.Remigio to KC 28 for 2 yards (25-R.Lane).
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Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(13:41) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to KC 1 for no gain (32-N.Bolton). FUMBLES (32-N.Bolton), RECOVERED by KC-56-G.Karlaftis at KC 2. 56-G.Karlaftis to KC 3 for 1 yard (33-B.Tuten). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(1:06) 14-M.Araiza punts 55 yards to JAX 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-20-N.Williams.
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Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EPp(convert) 61%
(13:24) 14-M.Araiza punts 45 yards to JAX 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-P.Washington to JAX 13 for -1 yards (20-N.Williams).
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Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 42%
(13:58) 14-M.Araiza punts 32 yards to JAX 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 34Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 68%
(8:13) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.