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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 59

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 14-M.Araiza punts 45 yards to JAX 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-P.Washington to JAX 13 for -1 yards (20-N.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.22 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP