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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 44

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(13:58) 14-M.Araiza punts 32 yards to JAX 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model