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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 32 yards to JAX 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.93 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP