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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.09 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP