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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to KC 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-N.Remigio to KC 9 for no gain (25-R.Lane).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.70 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP