Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(1:06) 14-M.Araiza punts 55 yards to JAX 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-20-N.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.76 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 63, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model