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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 78

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to KC 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-N.Remigio to KC 28 for 2 yards (25-R.Lane).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.18 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP