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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
@
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 09:30 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

MIN
56.2%
PIT
43.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • PIT defense: +0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Carson Wentz (MIN): -0.101 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN defense: -0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22
–
PIT 20
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

MIN

Andrew Van Ginkel LB Out Neck
J.J. McCarthy QB Out Ankle
Ben Yurosek TE Out Knee
Donovan Jackson G Out Wrist

PIT

Alex Highsmith LB Out Ankle
Jonnu Smith TE Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Jaylen Warren RB Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Joey Porter Jr. CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 21
–
PIT 24

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:28 FG MIN (6:28) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN-75-B.O'Neill was injured during the play. MIN 3 – PIT 0
  • Q1 00:58 TD PIT (:58) 14-K.Gainwell left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – PIT 6
  • Q2 12:28 TD PIT (12:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – PIT 13
  • Q2 00:16 FG MIN (:16) 16-W.Reichard 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 6 – PIT 14
  • Q3 02:26 TD PIT (2:26) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – PIT 20
  • Q4 11:21 FG PIT (11:21) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. MIN 6 – PIT 24
  • Q4 07:56 TD MIN (7:56) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 36-Z.Scott for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – PIT 24
  • Q4 02:13 TD MIN (2:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 1-J.Nailor for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – PIT 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:00) 3-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to MIN 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 4-M.Price to MIN 26 for 13 yards (33-J.Sawyer; 15-B.Skowronek).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 17 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%

    (6:28) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN-75-B.O'Neill was injured during the play.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:02) 27-J.Mason right tackle to PIT 45 for 9 yards (25-D.Elliott).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (1:42) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is BLOCKED (2-I.Rodgers), Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman, RECOVERED by MIN-0-I.Pace at MIN 9.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (:16) 16-W.Reichard 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 19 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:18) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to PIT 29, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-C.Austin to PIT 26 for -3 yards (13-T.Felton; 37-T.Thomas).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (11:11) 3-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to MIN 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 4-M.Price to MIN 20 for no gain (15-B.Skowronek). PENALTY on MIN-24-J.Ward, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 20.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 19 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:47) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to PIT 42, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at MIN 46 for 12 yards (98-B.Richter).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (11:21) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 99%

    (4:14) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell left guard to MIN 1 for 2 yards (7-B.Murphy).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (2:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 1-J.Nailor for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 45%

    (1:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 17 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep middle to 3-J.Addison (25-D.Elliott).