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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 15

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.31 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model