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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 54

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 27-J.Mason right tackle to PIT 45 for 9 yards (25-D.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.47 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model