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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 91

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(:47) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to PIT 42, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at MIN 46 for 12 yards (98-B.Richter).

The Three Options

GO -3.57 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.91 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 48, worth -2.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model