Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

(13:18) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to PIT 29, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-C.Austin to PIT 26 for -3 yards (13-T.Felton; 37-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.22 EP
73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model