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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 23

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN-75-B.O'Neill was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.53 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model