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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP