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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 3-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to MIN 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 4-M.Price to MIN 20 for no gain (15-B.Skowronek). PENALTY on MIN-24-J.Ward, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.02 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model