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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2025-12-14 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌨 Snow Spread 2.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

WAS
36.1%
NYG
63.9%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG defense: +0.172 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.241 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NYG on 6 more days rest than WAS

Predicted Final Score

WAS 20
–
NYG 24
Projected margin: NYG by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

WAS

Jonathan Jones CB Out Rib
Drake Jackson DE Out Groin
Jayden Daniels QB Out Elbow
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR Questionable Illness
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB Questionable Groin

NYG

Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT Out Ankle
Victor Dimukeje LB Out Knee
Kayvon Thibodeaux LB Out Shoulder
Nic Jones CB Out Shoulder
Beaux Collins WR Out Neck
Jamie Gillan P Doubtful Knee
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB Questionable Illness
Gunner Olszewski WR Questionable Concussion
Dexter Lawrence DT Questionable Hamstring
DJ Davidson DT Questionable Illness
Joshua Ezeudu G Questionable Calf
Art Green CB Questionable Hamstring
Darius Muasau LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 29
–
NYG 21

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:26 FG WAS (9:26) 16-J.Moody 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 3 – NYG 0
  • Q2 13:44 TD WAS (13:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – NYG 0
  • Q2 08:31 FG WAS (8:31) 16-J.Moody 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 13 – NYG 0
  • Q2 03:43 TD NYG (3:43) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – NYG 6
  • Q2 01:20 TD WAS (1:20) 15-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to WAS 37, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Ineligible Downfield Kick, declined. WAS 19 – NYG 7
  • Q2 00:04 FG WAS (:04) 16-J.Moody 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 22 – NYG 7
  • Q3 11:55 TD NYG (11:55) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep right to 29-T.Tracy for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 22 – NYG 13
  • Q4 13:56 TD WAS (13:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 28 – NYG 14
  • Q4 03:49 TD NYG (3:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep right to 17-W.Robinson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-P.Smith]. WAS 29 – NYG 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 81%

    (9:26) 16-J.Moody 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 70%

    (7:04) 37-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-15-C.Johnston.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 13 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 57%

    (2:20) 10-T.Way punts 29 yards to NYG 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 78%

    (:43) 15-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to WAS 33, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane to NYG 47 for 20 yards (53-D.Muasau).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:16) 15-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to WAS 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 90%

    (8:31) 16-J.Moody 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 16 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:54) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to NYG 28, Center-69-T.Ott. 8-J.Holland to NYG 25 for -3 yards (39-J.Reaves).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:20) 15-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to WAS 37, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Ineligible Downfield Kick, declined.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:16) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to NYG 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 8-J.Holland to NYG 19 for 10 yards (58-J.Magee).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (7:32) 15-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to WAS 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane to WAS 36 for 8 yards (53-D.Muasau).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (6:06) 10-T.Way punts 44 yards to NYG 13, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 76%

    (2:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle to 82-D.Bellinger to WAS 48 for 12 yards (58-J.Magee; 20-Q.Martin).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 18 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 70%

    (15:00) 37-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-15-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (10:27) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson (20-Q.Martin). ** Injury Update: NYG-6-J.Dart has returned to the game.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 94%

    (3:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep right to 17-W.Robinson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-P.Smith].

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 57%

    (1:43) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep left to 17-W.Robinson.