Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 85

New York Giants 7 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 15-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to WAS 37, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Ineligible Downfield Kick, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.88 EP
68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 85, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model