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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 75

New York Giants 14 – Washington Commanders 22

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 15-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to WAS 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane to WAS 36 for 8 yards (53-D.Muasau).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.44 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model