4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 38

New York Giants 21 – Washington Commanders 29

What Actually Happened

(1:43) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep left to 17-W.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.87 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 47, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP